Confidence in Arizona Economy Inching Upwards

You’ve heard the line – “I have good new and bad news…first the good news.”  We’ll switch that up and give you the bad news first.  The Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index (BLCI), which is compiled and issued quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller School of Management, reported a 38.5 figure for the third quarter of 08.  Any number under 50 signals the probability of worsening economic conditions in the third quarter.  In short, panel members who were surveyed believed the national economy will worsen in the third quarter as well as the Arizona economy.  Sales will continue to slide and there will be decreases in hiring.  Same old, same old bad news.  But the glimmering ray of hope, the silver lining if you will is that the index reading of 38.5 marked a gain of 1.6 points over the previous quarter – the first increase in over a year.  According to the BLCI website, “its upward movement is a welcome sign that the worst may be behind us.  Panel members have correctly predicted the economy’s direction-of-change nearly 70% of the time.”

According to the survey, the top concerns facing the state are:

1. Housing - Real Estate
2. Budget Deficit - Tax Revenues
3. Immigration - Border - Employer Sanctions
4. Economy - Recession
5. Inflation - Costs - Energy
6. Education
7. Workforce - Labor Skills
8. Health Care Costs - Insurance
9. Water
10. Growth
11. Infrastructure - Transportation

The BLCI is posted quarterly at www.blci.com/arizona  along with commentary on the specific findings from the survey that panel members take.  If you are an Arizona business owner or manager, you can register to become a panelist at the same website.

Contact Don Vallee or Drew Gelatt for more Tucson real estate information.

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